今日学习
小编在此为大家附上高考英语阅读的高频词汇，同时也会增加阅读难度哦，一起来看看吧。
小方法
111. individual a. 个别的,单独的 n. 个人,个体
112. personal a. 个人的,私人的；亲自的
114. personnel n. [总称]人员,员工；人事部门
115. the Pacific Ocean 太平洋
116. the Atlantic Ocean 大西洋
117. the Arctic Ocean 北冰洋
118. the Antarctic Ocean 南冰洋
119. grant vt. 授予,同意,准予
119. grand a. 宏伟大,壮丽的,重大的
120. invade v. 侵入,侵略,侵袭
小小练习
Nearly two thousand years have passed since a census decreed by Caesar Augustus become part of the greatest story ever told. Many things have changed in the intervening years. The hotel industry worries more about overbuilding than overcrowding, and if they had to meet an unexpected influx, few inns would have a manager to accommodate the weary guests. Now it is the census taker that does the traveling in the fond hope that a highly mobile population will stay long enough to get a good sampling. Methods of gathering, recording, and evaluating information have presumably been improved a great deal. And where then it was the modest purpose of Rome to obtain a simple head count as an adequate basis for levying taxes, now batteries of complicated statistical series furnished by governmental agencies and private organizations are eagerly scanned and interpreted by sages and seers to get a clue to future events. The Bible does not tell us how the Roman census takers made out, and as regards our more immediate concern, the reliability of present day economic forecasting, there are considerable differences of opinion. They were aired at the celebration of the 125th anniversary of the American Statistical Association. There was the thought that business forecasting might well be on its way from an art to a science, and some speakers talked about newfangled computers and high-falutin mathematical system in terms of excitement and endearment which we, at least in our younger years when these things mattered, would have associated more readily with the description of a fair maiden. But others pointed to the deplorable record of highly esteemed forecasts and forecasters with a batting average below that of the Mets, and the President-elect of the Association cautioned that “high powered statistical methods are usually in order where the facts are crude and inadequate, the exact contrary of what crude and inadequate statisticians assume.” We left his birthday party somewhere between hope and despair and with the conviction, not really newly acquired, that proper statistical methods applied to ascertainable facts have their merits in economic forecasting as long as neither forecaster nor public is deluded into mistaking the delineation of probabilities and trends for a prediction of certainties of mathematical exactitude.
1、Taxation in Roman days apparently was based on
A. wealth. B. mobility C. population D. census takers.
2、The message the author wishes the reader to get is
A. statisticians have not advanced since the days of the Roman.
B. statistics is not as yet a science.
C. statisticians love their machine.
D. computer is hopeful.
3、The American Statistical Association
A. is converting statistical study from an art to a science.
B. has an excellent record in business forecasting.
C. is neither hopeful nor pessimistic.
D. speaks with mathematical exactitude.
4、The “greatest story ever told” referred to in the passage is the story of
A. Christmas.
B. The Mets.
C. Moses.
D. Roman Census Takers.
难词注释
1. census 人口调查 2. decreed 分布法令
3. influx 汇集，流入（人口或物） 4. census taker 人口调查员
5. in the intervening years 在这期间 6. sampling 取样（调查）
7. presumable 可能的，可推测的 8. batteries 一连串，一系列
9. sage 圣人；聪明的（人—） 10. seer 先知
11. newfangled 新型的（贬义） 12. high-falutin 夸大的，夸张的
13. deplorable 悲惨的，杂乱的 14. batting average 平均成功 率（原指击球平均得分数）
15. ascertainable 可以确定的/确切的 16. delineation 描述
17. exactitude 精确
难句译注
1. The hotel industry worries more about overbuilding than overcrowding, and if they had to meet an unexpected influx, few inns would have a manager to accommodate the weary guests.
【结构简析】 复合句。And后为虚拟条件句。
【参考译文】 旅馆业就忧虑旅馆建的太多，不愁人太多。但是如果他们不得不碰到意想不到大批旅客，没有什么旅馆会有一位经理去安排疲惫不堪的客人的食宿。
写作方法与文章大意
文章论及“统计数字预测经济”。采用对比论证手法，还带点讽刺口吻，但气势宏伟。从两千年前恺撒•奥古斯都下令进行的人口调查说起，讲到现在的统计数字预测经济情况。得出应当正确对待预测数字的结论。
近二千年以来已经过去了一个人口普查发布的凯撒奥古斯都成为有史以来最伟大的故事告诉。许多事情在这几年已经改变了。酒店行业更担心过度建设比过度拥挤,而且如果他们必须满足一个意想不到的涌入,一些旅馆将有一个经理来适应疲倦的客人。现在是人口调查员,并旅游的美好希望,一个高度移动的人口将停留足够长的时间来获得一个好的抽样。方法收集、记录和评估信息有可能被提升了一大截。和当时的罗马的适度的目的来获得一个简单的头算作一个适当的基础征收的税收,现在电池复杂的统计系列配备的政府机构和私人组织都急切地扫描和解释圣贤和预言家去健身房。圣经没有告诉我们罗马人口普查员如何做,至于我们的更直接的关注,今天的经济预测的可靠性,也有相当大的差异的观点。他们参加了庆祝125周年的纪念美国统计协会。有认为商业预测很可能是在从一种艺术,一门科学,和一些演讲者谈到了新奇的电脑和高端数学系统方面的兴奋和钟爱这我们,至少在我们的年轻年当这些事情很重要,会更容易与相关的描述一个淑女。但其他人指出凄惨的记录的高度尊敬的预测,预测者们平均低于大都会,当选总统奥巴马的协会警告说,“高功率的统计方法通常是为了事实原油和不足,完全相反的原油和不充分的统计学家假设。”我们离开了他的生日晚会介于希望和绝望和信念,不是真正的新获得的,恰当的统计方法应用于可确定的事实都有其优点在经济预测只要无论是预报员和公共是欺骗搞界定概率和趋势预测的确定性的数学正确性。
1. 答案 C. 人口。答案在第六句，“那时罗马计算人头作为征税的适当基础，目的很简单。”
A. 财富。
B. 流动性。
C. 人口调查员。
2. 答案A. 正把统计研究从文科转变成理科。这是从第六句开始讲的一种观点。“现在，政府机构和私人组织的一系列复杂的统计数字，由智者和先知人物殷切地浏览和解释以取得预先外未来事件的线索。圣经并没有告诉我们罗马的人口调查员是怎么调查统计的。至于我们当前更加关心的问题：目前经济预测的可靠性，意见分歧很大。美国统计协会125周年庆祝活动上，人们在大肆宣扬这些不同观点。有一种说法是经济预测可能正从文科转向科学（理科）发展。有些人兴高采烈大谈新型计算机和非常高级数学系统。”作者虽然没有明说，明眼人一看便知，艺术向科学转变正是美国统计协会在把统计学从文科转向理科。所以A. 对。
B. 在商业预测方面具有杰出的记录。不对。实际上“平均成功率还低于the Mets”
C. 既没有希望也不乐观。文内没有提及。只提作者他们半喜半忧离开协会。
D. 以数学的精确性来说话。见下道题解释。协会部分人却有此看法“数学精确性。”
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